(Note: A shorter version of this story appeared September 19, 2019 in The New York Times)
DETROIT
Buick dealers are now selling Buick-less Buicks.
It’s true: As of the 2019 model year, the Buick name has been removed from all its North American models. In China, where Buick claims most of its sales these days, the “Buick” badge disappeared years ago.
Why? Company leaders decided the name “Buick” carried more baggage than one of its station wagons.
The feeling is apparently that, after 115 years in business, the “Buick” name has become saddled an “old-fogey” image from which today’s company thinks it must distance itself; it wants to be thought of as a thoroughly modern “attainable luxury” vehicle in a class with Acura, Infiniti, Lincoln and Lexus, a notch below premium offering, Cadillac.
The company has gone so far as to produce advertisements that explicitly distance it from the Buick name. “That’s not a Buick” spots were placed in high-profile slots, such as during the Super Bowl, to more emphatically drive home the point.
There’s not much about today’s “Buick” that is uniquely Buick anyway.
It’s more of a marketing arm of G.M.
Buick, the brand, ceased to be an “automobile manufacturer” after 2010 when General Motors shuttered its vast “Buick City” manufacturing complex in Flint, Michigan. That was where pureblood Buick vehicles, Buick engines, and Buick-specific parts had been produced for more than a century. Buick City had, at one time, been the largest auto factory in the world.
Since then, Buick dealers’ lots have been filled with a mélange of vehicles scrounged from other G.M. brands such as Opel, Holden and Daewoo; these models were merely re-badged as Buicks. So-called badge-engineering is a tried-and-failed G.M. strategy that’s been credited with helping mightily to dilute the DNA of Oldsmobile, Saturn and Pontiac models and sabotage those brands.
Today’s Buick-less Buicks do still carry a stylized version of the brand’s “Tri-shield” logo, which was introduced to highlight its stylish, but ill-fated 1959 Electra, Invicta and LeSabre models. The absence of Buick lettering today does leave room for the new “Avenir” badge, which the company has recently introduced as a “sub-brand” suggesting a higher level of luxury. Some auto analysts feel Buick could eventually transition fully to the Avenir name.
Buick is America’s oldest continuous automotive brand, and the rock upon which General Motors was built more than a century ago. But it now bears no resemblance to the design, engineering, styling and manufacturing juggernaut founded in 1904 by the all-but-forgotten David Dunbar Buick. (He was squeezed out a few years later, leaving with one share of stock.) Interestingly, Oldsmobile was founded earlier, but shuttered by G.M. in 2001 despite comparatively robust sales near a quarter million a year. Pontiac and Saturn were also cancelled while selling at North American volumes higher than Buick is now; they did not survive GM’s bankruptcy in 2009.
If not for the fortuitous and serendipitous level of esteem in which the Buick name was held in China – Communist Party leaders once favored lavishly appointed Buick land yachts of the post WWII years – it’s likely the brand would have been shut down when Buick City was.
But a spokeswoman, Michelle Malcho, says the Buick division soldiers on, still in the black despite falling sales, largely due to sales of high-margin sport utility vehicles and crossovers.
This calendar year, thanks to a spate of discounts, dealers and incentives of 20 percent off MSRP and more, Buick sales in the United States might surge near 2018’s 219,000 units. (Buick’s North American sales are a fraction of GM’s Chevrolet and GMC Truck volumes, although more than Cadillac.) But it’s been a margin-depleting struggle to reach that level.
Meanwhile in China, where it’s said that Buick’s comparatively Spartan modern offerings have sullied its storied reputation for bodacious Eisenhower-era luxury (thus, the disappearance of the “Buick” nameplate there), sales volumes have been dropping ominously. In 2016 and 2017, Buick and its partner SAIC Motor of Shanghai sold 1,229,804 and 1,227,518 units, respectively. Last year, sales fell significantly to 1,057,452; even lower totals – perhaps in the mid-800,000 range – are expected by the end of 2019.
Another dilemma: Buick is running out of “cars”. Buick just killed off its flagship LaCrosse sedan – a re-badged Opel Insignia – and the Opel-sourced Cascada convertible; G.M. sold off its Opel division two years ago, cutting off the source for many of its badge-engineered Buicks. Its last car, the Opel/Vauxhall/Holden Regal sedan (now also offered in hatchback and wagon variants) is dated, and in need of a costly re-design. Less than 6,000 Regals are likely to be sold in 2019 – an unsustainable volume.
If an affordable Regal replacement can’t be found, Ms. Malcho conceded, Buick will probably cancel it too, thus exiting the “car” side of the business – at least in America – an ironic outcome for a brand that, in its first century, principally sold cars. (Through WWI, Buick’s lineup did include some delivery wagons, ambulances, buses, and trucks.)
“Ninety percent of our sales are now in SUVs and crossovers,” Ms. Malcho said. Buick’s flagship Enclave, produced in G.M.’s Lansing plant alongside the largely similar GMC Acadia and Chevrolet Traverse, is enjoying improved sales this year, after a down year in 2018. Sales of the Chinese-built Envision are flat, year-over-year, but down considerably from volumes in recent years. The tiny Korea-sourced Encore line of crossovers is up slightly this year, and hoping for a boost from an upcoming variant, the GX.
(In China, Buick sales include cars and SUVs made specifically for that market.)
Ms. Malcho pushed back on any suggestion that the division might be facing any existential crisis. “We see dynamic changes, certainly, but we see opportunities for growth,” she said. “The company is uniquely suited and well positioned for today’s global automotive market.”
Its unique role, as a company doing significant business in both China and America, also exposes Buick to unique challenges too. Trade wars, currency fluctuations and uncertainty over tariffs threaten Buick from both directions, like a whipsaw.
John Murphy, senior auto analyst for Bank of America/Merrill Lynch, predicted in his annual “Car Wars” industry outlook (released in June), that besides headwinds related to a worsening China trade war, the Chinese market is over-saturated anyway. He foresees a further 7.5 percent sales drop this year – beyond the dip that started in 2018. Most recently, other analysts have suggested the “recession” in the Chinese auto market is rapidly accelerating into “depression”; the reason most often cited for the slowdown: Chinese consumers just aren’t that excited about the current offerings.
Mr. Murphy sees downward sales pressures for the worldwide auto industry – down a further 30 percent from current levels by 2022. That might tempt automakers to engage in ruinous price wars, as they did in 2007-2009, in an attempt to maintain volume and market share, he noted. (See: Buick, 2019)
In fact, chief financial officers from Ford and G.M. have prepared for dire scenarios – an automotive perfect storm – in the near term. So they are stockpiling capital, rationing resources, deferring expenditures and re-directing sales strategies to lower priced models. Labor unrest and strikes in the U.S. have also advanced to the front burner.
But Mr. Murphy also suggested, to stay competitive, manufacturers need to speed up – not slow down – new vehicle intros from 4-5 years or even longer, to every to 2.5 years. “A lot of good, fresh product,” he added, is needed to sustain demand. So, that’s an area where Buick will also be challenged, as G.M.’s strategy has been to save costs by stretching out model lifespans an extra year or two, if they can get away with it.
Crossovers and trucks currently account for 70 percent of new vehicle introductions, Murphy observed, with crossover nameplates expected to grow to almost 150 by the 2023 model years – 25 percent more than trucks or cars. That could create overcrowding in the genre, but Ms. Malcho felt Buick’s relatively early entry to the crossover genre bolsters it as an established player.
Regardless, Mr. Murphy said, “When you think of the profitability of crossovers, the market could quickly fade and erode to where passenger car profits have been more recently. There’s a real significant risk of overcrowding in the market. They’ve been very supportive of profitability for the industry. The industry really needs to be ready to recognize it’s going to be a tough time in the future.”
None of this is good news for planners at China-centric Buick, of course.
The silver lining, Mr. Murphy added, could come in 2023 when he sees the survivors of this approaching carmageddon enjoying “a strong recovery.”
The question becomes, however, will the Buick-less Buick, or Avenir, be able to chug along that long, or run out of gas?
Jerry Garrett
September 19, 2019
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